It's time to prepare for a new season of fantasy football. Everyone knows what type of contributions they will get from the likes of Arian Foster, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees and this makes the early rounds of your fantasy draft fairly easy. Where the true separation comes is in the late rounds of the draft, often times this means getting lucky with late round selections which typically includes unproven rookies. While selecting rookies who have never played a down in the NFL is difficult, I have compiled a list of what I believe will be the top ten fantasy producing rookies:
10.
Kendall Wright. Wright was selected 20th overall by the Titans. He does not have great size, at 5'10", but does possess good hands and above-average speed. As a result of Kenny Britt's off the field issues, Wright, may have an increased role with the offense, depending on Britt's availability. One has to believe, however, that Britt will be facing a suspension from league giving Wright a chance to get settled in the offense. Tennessee was ranked 12th overall in passing touchdowns last season with 22. Look for that number to increase with both Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker gaining greater familiarity with the offense.
9.
Doug Martin. Doug Martin was taken in the first round by Tampa Bay and is high on most people's fantasy radar. I wouldn't rate Martin as high as many do. The Buccaneers last season were 27th overall in total offense and 30th in rushing offense. Tampa Bay only scored nine rushing touchdowns all of last season, many of which were scored by the incumbent back, LaGarrette Blount. While new coach, Greg Schiano, has dropped hints that Martin may be the starter, it's hard to envision the Bucs not using a back with Blount's size in goal line situations. It is also of note that another rookie back for the Bucs, Michael Smith, has impressed during camp. As a result, we may see three backs splitting carries. While I believe Martin will be a good NFL back, I don't believe he will carry a lot of fantasy value this season.
8.
Trent Richardson. Richardson, inexplicably, seems to be high on everyone's draft boards. Richardson, however, will be starring in an offense that managed only four rushing touchdowns all of last season. That is one touchdown on the ground every four games. While Richardson admittedly does provide the Browns with a weapon on the ground that they did not have last year, the Browns have several problems offensively that Richardson alone cannot solve. The most glaring reason to stay away from Richardson until the late rounds of your draft is mainly because he and Browns have to face the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals twice. Each of those teams were ranked in the top 10 defensively in the NFL last season. Not to mention it appears that the Browns will be starting rookie quarterback in Brandon Weedon. It is likely that most defenses will force the Browns to beat them through the air. All of this spells misery for Richardson as a fantasy back.
7.
Robert Turbin. Turbin wasn't taken in this year's draft until the fourth round by the Seahawks. Turbin, however, is a back that possesses a rare combination of power and speed, much like his Seahawk teammate Marshawn Lynch. Turbin ran for over 1500 yards in his senior year at Utah State and now plays for a team that was 11th in the league in rushing touchdowns. While the Seahawks were only ranked 23rd in total offense in 2011, they appear to have improved offensively with a capable quarterback in Matt Flynn. There are two main reasons for ranking Turbin so high; first, Lynch may also be facing some suspension for his recent off the field issues, and second the Seahawks schedule is full of bad defenses. Therefore, I believe fantasy owners can get some value out of Turbin towards the end of their drafts.
6.
Stephen Hill. Hill may be megatron junior. He is huge at 6'4", 215 lbs, and has pretty decent speed. He should provide a large target for Sanchez, in an offense that lost some key members of its passing game. The Jets were 9th in the NFL last season in passing touchdowns with 26. While the acquisition of Tim Tebow may mean less pass attempts inside the red-zone, Hill will still provide a big target for Sanchez or Tebow around the goal line and will provide the Jets with a matchup advantage, much like Johnson does for Detroit. Hill would make a great fourth or fifth wide receiver on your roster.
5.
Robert Griffin. Many fantasy owners will need to fight the urge to compare Griffin to Cam Newton. Griffin will not put up Newton-like fantasy numbers this season. Griffin, will however, be a decent number two quarterback on your roster. Griffin will be tutored by Mike Shanahan who has made several quarterbacks successful under his tenure. Griffin will be taking over an offense, that does lack some weapons, but was still ranked 14th overall in passing offense. It also must be taken into account that Washington plays a schedule full of weak defensive opponents, especially against the pass. While Griffin is not Newton, he still does possess the ability to tack on some rushing touchdowns which are valuable to fantasy owners. If you haven't taken a second quarterback in the last half of your draft, Griffin isn't a terrible option.
4.
Ronnie Hillman. Hillman will get several touches for an offense that finished first in the NFL in rushing. Granted that was with Mr. Tebow at the helm, but it does speak to the Broncos' ability to run the ball effectively. That should be magnified with the arrival of Peyton Manning who has the knack of being able to put players in positions where they can be successful. Manning was always able to get the most out of his running attack in Indianapolis, even Donald Brown was able to put up good fantasy numbers when Manning was under center. I don't see how Hillman can't succeed with the Broncos this season. If you have a chance to pick him up in the middle rounds, you may want to consider it.
3.
LaMichael James. You may think I am crazy ranking James so high, but much like Hillman, I don't see how James won't be successful in San Francisco. San Francisco was 8th overall in total offense last year, and have added several weapons to their offensive arsenal this year, while maintaining the same dynamic defense that powered them to the NFC Championship game last season. Harbaugh appears to have a simple philosophy, and that is to beat teams with defense and controlling the clock. The 49ers were very successful running the ball last season with Frank Gore and Stephen Hunter. Gore has a history of injuries and lacks the speed that James possesses. It is certain the James is going to get a lot of touches throughout the season and with his explosive play making ability, much like Darren Sproles, he will be a consistent fantasy producer.
2.
David Wilson. This Virginia Tech standout will now be carrying the ball for the defending world champions, New York Giants. The Giants were sixth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year while also being ranked dead last in rushing offense. Wilson will fill in for Brandon Jacobs and will see a lot touches this season while splitting time with Ahmad Bradshaw. In today's NFL the passing game opens up the running game for most teams, and the Giants seem to fall into this category. Eli, like his brother, is great at getting the offense in situations where it can succeed. The Giants give their running backs a lot of opportunities to score touchdowns, and I think Wilson will see lots of those this year. As a result, he will be a great running back to have on your roster. He will consistently score points.
1.
Andrew Luck. This one may have been too easy, but it is clear that Luck will get the starting nod from day 1. Unlike most of the others on this list, Luck will not be splitting time, he will be under center nearly every snap, barring injury. Indianapolis, although they finished towards the bottom in most statistical categories last season, still have a lot of offensive weapons. The Colts also added two very capable rookie tight ends, one of which Luck is very familiar with having played with him at Stanford. Luck, by most accounts, is ready to play in the NFL and isn't having trouble picking up an NFL offense. The Colts are not going to treat Luck like a rookie, they will open up the offense and let Luck do what they drafted him to do. If you can't get one of the top veteran quarterbacks in your draft, i.e. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Eli, Peyton or Romo, you may want to consider taking Luck at some point in the middle rounds. I doubt he will disappoint.
