Have You Seen This? One Extra Ball Down There...

This guy at the Blue Jays game yesterday pulled off quite the feat.  He trapped a foul ball between his legs while hanging on to his slushie and hot dog.  I mostly enjoy the assistance provided by the fan in the blue shirt.

Krystkowiak compares Utes to Jayhawks

Someone needs to remind Larry Krystkowiak that he is the head coach of a basketball program that finished 6-25 last season with an RPI of 274.  Or in other words, remind him that he presides over one of the worst basketball teams in the entire country.  Because obviously he didn't get the memo.  In today's Salt Lake Tribune, Krystkowiak was asked about resuming the basketball series with instate rival Utah State, to which Krystkowiak responded that he "would rather not play Utah State at any time."  As justification, Krystkowiak pointed to Kansas and the fact that they refuse to play Wichita State, a mid-major team in their own state.  http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsutahsports/54484821-59/state-utah-krystkowiak-playing.html.csp

Some one needs to remind Krystkowiak that he isn't coming off of a national championship run.  Perhaps they could even remind him that his team is coming off of a season in which it lost to Cal State Fullerton by 31 points, to UNC Asheville by 22 points, and Boise State by 21 points.  While I suppose that for recruiting purposes it would be reasonable for Krystkowiak to no longer want to play Utah State, the Utes are not to the Aggies what the Jayhawks are to the Shockers.  Krystkowiak apparently had no choice in this decision and stated as much.  Perhaps he is too busy establishing a relationship with his new rival Evergreen State.  Best of luck to coach Krystkowiak, it looks like he will need it.

Riley Would Like Some Advice.....Please Help.

Recently an "anonymous" poster had some important life questions for the craigslist world.

http://provo.craigslist.org/rnr/3084631854.html

His questions are simple, straightforward.  All he wants to know is this:

"I know I'm gay because I have gotten hard wrestling with my friends before and once when we were skinny dipping up at Payson Lakes, I got a hard on in the water for some reason. They didn't see.

Because I also get hard around chicks, does that mean I am bisexual? Anyone else have any experience like mine?"

Who hasn't had to ask themselves this very same question at some point in their life?  So....if you see Riley around Utah County, go ahead and help him out.  Explain to him how you first knew that you were bisexual.

Suicide & Sports Photographer in Provo

It looks like Becca would like to photograph someone who is into either suicide or sports.  Apparently she felt like Provo was the best place to look for models.  http://provo.craigslist.org/crs/3121541769.html.

Becca's ad on craigslist says; "I specalize in suicide and prevention as well as dabble in sports and entertainment. I am looking for models who would want to get pictures done for either of these."  Perhaps a few more years of independence and she will have plenty of Cougar fans to snap photos of.

Good luck Becca!!!

The Big East's Big Regret - San Diego State

In December 2011, it was announced that San Diego State was joining the Big East Conference.  That Big East Conference, however, was not the same conference that we had all finally gotten to know.  You know, that Big East Conference that we all knew didn’t deserve to be an automatic qualifier for a BCS game.  That same conference that always provided America with one BCS game that they didn’t care to watch.  Yes, that Big East.  That was the conference that invited The San Diego State University to join its ranks.  I suppose inviting a team from San Diego to join a conference called the “Big East,” makes about as much sense as allowing a conference comprised with surprisingly mediocre football teams to enjoy a seat at the BCS table while other conferences with equally mediocre teams were excluded.  Obviously, San Diego State jumped at the opportunity to join, along with their new found friends, Boise State.  However, what may be surprising is that San Diego State was the party that appeared to enter their new union with an abundance of caution, while it should have been the Big East that had warning sirens going off in its conference headquarters.  It would be the equivalent of me forcing Katy Perry to sign a prenuptial agreement before I would ever agree to marry her.    

It is interesting to note that San Diego State’s agreement with the Big East contained several methods in which SDSU could escape the Big East with little or no penalty.   The Agreement require San Diego State to pay a $5 million entrance fee, however that amount could be decreased to $1 million if the Big East were to experience a 25 percent decrease in total revenue from its prior fiscal year.  Also, if the Big East’s new television contract fails to allocate at least 70 percent of the proceeds to football broadcasts, SDSU can escape the Big East with a reduced buy out of $2.5 million.  San Diego State’s contract with the Big East could also be voided if Boise State were to change its mind about joining the conference in July 2013 and another team west of the Rocky Mountains is not added in Boise’s place. 

The contract negotiated by the two parties seems to indicate that the Big East was fairly desperate to, not only add teams, but to add western based teams, specifically Boise State.  The terms also seem to indicate some confidence on the part of the Big East in regards to the value of its television contract.  It was the general consensus that the estimated television contract, prior to the departure of schools like Syracuse and Pittsburg, was somewhere in the ballpark of $11 million per school, however that included both basketball and football.  The contract with San Diego State seems to imply that the Big East currently believes that television contract would put the floor for contract negotiations at $6.4 million per school.  It appears that the Big East must have at least some good understanding as to what the minimum television contract will be with their new additions.

Beginning September 2012, the Big East can commence with negotiating a new television  contract.  Some have speculated that a new TV deal for the Big East could fetch at least $6.4 million per year for football-only members.  San Diego State Athletic Director, Jim Sterk, is quoted as saying that he thinks it "could be a lot better than that."  All of the emphasis there should be on the word 'could'.  After all, San Diego State could win the national championship.  The likelihood of either of those things happening, however, may be fairly remote.

Apparently NBC and Fox made presentations to the league earlier this year.  However, ESPN does own first negotiating rights with the conference starting in September.  Sterk has indicated that it is the intention of the Big East to get the television contracts done and “then decide by 2015, when Navy comes in, to have that other school there."   Mike Sheehey, the senior vice president for sports content at NBC Sports Group explained that “you have to make your business decisions based on what your conference is now and put in clauses that allow it to address any changes.”  He indicated that “there is value now, and that’s what we’re looking at. And we don’t know if it’s going to continue to change or if it’s not. But either way, we feel there’s value.”  NBC is stating that, according to them, there is ‘value’ in the Big East, I suppose the question then becomes, just how much value?  The Big East will add the aforementioned San Diego State University, along with Boise State, Houston, SMU, Central Florida, Memphis and Temple for the 2013 season, and has Navy on board for the 2015 season.

While San Diego State must be applauded for their caution in entering into a contract with the Big East, one has to wonder if the Big East showed comparable caution and restraint in their plans of moving forward.  The addition of San Diego State is evidence that perhaps the Big East failed in the prudence department.   

In 2013, the Big East will consist of 12 football playing schools, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, Temple, South Florida, Boise State, Houston, Central Florida, Memphis, Southern Methodist, and San Diego State.  Of that group, Rutgers resides in the nation’s largest television market, Temple in the fourth largest market (Philadelphia), SMU is in the Dallas television market with is ranked fifth by Nielson, and Houston is also in the top ten television markets.  With its two western additions, the Big East added the 28^th largest television market in San Diego with a market size of approximately 1 million, and the 112^th largest market in Boise, Idaho, a market size of approximately 261,000.  While adding Boise definitely secures control over that 112^th ranked market, adding San Diego State could only allow the Big East, and its eventual television partner, to secure a portion of the 28^th ranked market, which lies in firm Pac 12 territory.  The New York Times conducted some research in regards to fan base breakdown in certain geographical regions.  While the research was admittedly unscientific, it does seem to indicate that San Diego State shares its market with the PAC 12, as there appears to be an equal ratio of San Diego State fans and fans of PAC 12 schools such as USC, UCLA, Stanford, California and Arizona (http://www.commoncensus.org/sports_hotspot.phpradioDiameter=100&map.x=91&map.y=231&sport=5)

That same New York Times study ranked San Diego State as having an estimated national fan base of 242,126, ranking them 77^th out all FBS schools, that is not even a quarter of the entire San Diego market.  As a result, the Big East has to question just how much of the San Diego market will it receive with San Diego State’s addition.  While the Big East’s motive may simply be to gain some presence, no matter how minor, in Southern California it will certainly struggle to gain viewers in that region for games involving teams from New Jersey, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Tennessee and Florida. 

In addition, San Diego State’s entire athletic department’s 2011 revenue was only $45,201,703.  While that revenue is greater than half of that of the other members of the 2013 Big East, it still falls in the bottom half of the rankings for FBS schools.    In 2009, San Diego State averaged only 24,464 fans at their home games.  That number has increased to just below 40,000 in 2011, however that number seems to be a bit skewed by their own attendance counting practices and the fact that they sell out a 71,000 seat stadium once a year for a popular fireworks show that is held after one game each season.  These numbers all seem to indicate that San Diego State does not carry much national appeal and even fails to receive much attention within its own market. 

Perhaps the most convincing argument for the exclusion of San Diego State would be the fact that the football program has been nothing short of miserable for entirety of this century.  Since 2000, San Diego State has won only 38 percent of its games, which ranks them 97^th among all FBS schools.  Of the 2013 Big East, only Temple can claim a worse record over that same time period.  In contrast, Boise State ranks tops in winning percentage since 2000.  On average, the 2013 Big East has only won 51 percent of its games since 2000.  As a result, the networks have to realize that they are looking to make a deal with a conference that is the very epitome of mediocre. 

Based on these facts, one has to ask two simple questions in regards to the status of the Big East and its pending television contract negotiations; first, does San Diego State increase the Big East’s appeal and prestige?  And second, does San Diego State add value?  Based on the facts outlined above, it is obvious that San Diego State adds little to nothing in the way of national appeal and perhaps decreases any on-field prestige that the conference may have gained over the years.  While San Diego State may be located in one of the nation’s top 30 television markets, there are significant questions in regards to just how many people in that market actually care about San Diego State football.  Further, a team that has only managed to win just over one-third of its games this century cannot possibly add any prestige to the conference nor will they demand increased viewership.  Unlike its counterpart Boise State, who comes from a much smaller market, Boise State at a minimum can increase the overall prestige of the conference by way of its proven track record of success on the field. 

The second question as to whether San Diego State adds value is yet to be determined.  It is clear that the Big East has lost significant value as a result of the departure of Syracuse and Pittsburg, the questions will be does the addition of San Diego State salvage any of that lost value.  We may not know the answer to that question because the Big East will never take the opportunity to negotiate a contract without the inclusion of San Diego State, so we may never know whether they add to the bottom line value of the television contract.  Perhaps the only argument for their inclusion would be that they came as a package deal with Boise State and the Big East wanted Boise State badly enough they will include San Diego State. 

While the Big East may prove all of its critics wrong, one has to wonder if their standing in the college football landscape would be any worse had they entered the expansion game with greater caution.  If rumors are true, the Big East did attempt to add additional western teams, namely BYU and Air Force.  It is believed that those two schools turned the Big East down in 2011.  Perhaps the Big East could have waited on any western expansion until they had secured more than just Boise State and San Diego State.  A greater presence in the West certainly would have looked more appealing to television suitors than one small market team in Idaho and large market team with a small fan base in Southern California.  Now, the Big East is stuck with 12 mediocre teams scattered all over the country and a television contract that is set to expire at the end of this year. 

The comments from Mike Sheehy of NBC seem to indicate that the networks are hoping for change and that any contracts would be tailored with clauses increasing the contract if additional changes are made.  Those comments seem to indicate, that while there is some value, the networks are likely encouraging and hoping for additional changes in the conference’s make up.  Such statements seem to indicate that San Diego State was not addition that the networks were hoping for.  Leading one to assume that they are a small piece in what the Big East hopes is a bigger puzzle.  While San Diego State adds little value standing alone, perhaps their presence is key to attracting better alternatives out West that will eventually lead to the television contract that the Big East is hoping for.  

Utah State v. Auburn - The Day Utah State Turned the Corner.

Tonight ESPNU will rebroadcast last year's game between Utah State and Auburn, as they have ranked it as one of the top 20 games of the 2011 season.  Both Aggie and Tiger fans, however, may think differently.  Aggie fans are probably still depressed as they think about what could have been the biggest victory in school history.  Tiger fans are likely feeling lucky, and perhaps somewhat embarrassed that they had such a close call against a perennial bottom dweller from the Western Athletic Conference.  For college football fans, however, it was a game that had a little bit of everything, including a dramatic final 2 minutes.

Utah State entered the game coming off back to back 4-8 seasons and looking to finally turn a corner and achieve a winning season.  Auburn, as everyone knows, was fresh off a national championship and looking to defend its title after replacing Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton.  Utah State, however, was a virtual unknown to everyone, including its own fan base.  The Aggies had multiple returning starters on the offensive side of the ball, however, they had yet to name a starting quarterback coming into the season opener.  Coach  Gary Andersen, had refused to name a starter prior to the game, and most Aggie fans were just waiting for the first possession to see who ran onto the field.  The Aggies were going to either start true-Freshman Chuckie Keeton, or junior college transfer, Adam Kennedy.  Either way, they were going to be going forward with an unknown entity at quarterback.  It turned out that, Keeton, the 18 year old true freshman from Texas was going to get the nod to start his first collegiate game in front of 85,000 fans and a national audience on ESPN.

Auburn too had a question mark at the quarterback position as they were attempting to replace the aforementioned Cam Newton.  The Tigers went with Barret Trotter to fill the void left by Newton.  However, even with a new quarterback, there were not many Tiger fans that felt as though the Aggies would put up much resistance against their mighty counterpart from the SEC.

The game kicked off early with at 12:00 eastern on a hot, humid day in Auburn, Alabama.  Utah State received the kick off and started their first drive on their own 25 yard line at which time Keeton emerged on the field as the starter.  While this may have been irrelevant to Tiger fans at the time, Aggie fans had to be at least a little shocked, and concerned at the notion of starting a true-freshman quarterback in this situation.  The Aggies went three and out as many Tiger fans probably expected and punted the ball back to the Tigers.    After a good punt, Trotter and the Tiger offense took over at their own 21.  It was at this point, that it became evident that this was a new and improved Aggie team.  The Tigers came out and attempted to run on Bobby Wagner and the Aggies on each of the first two plays, each run was immediately shut down.  That was followed by a short pass on third down and Keeton and the Aggies had the ball again.

After a short pass, an Auburn penalty and 1 yard run, Kerwin Williams busted up the left side untouched for a 43 yard touchdown and all anyone could hear at Jordan Hare Stadium was the few Aggie faithful that had made the journey South.  At this point, Auburn fans may have been quiet but there was no way that any of them could really be concerned about lowly Utah State.  Such an attitude by the Tiger fans appeared to be justified as the Tigers came back and tied the game at 7 in just three plays.

How did the Aggies counter? With a physically bruising 15 play, 80 yard drive that took 7:27 and was capped by a Chuckie Keeton 3 yard run on a fourth and goal play (pictured above).  That drive nearly stalled around midfield where the Aggies faced a third down and 20 when Keeton connected on a 25 yard pass play with Xavier Martin.  This was the drive that had to have given both Keeton and the Aggie offense the confidence they would need to compete for the remaining three quarters.  The drive also gave Andersen the opportunity to show the offense, and especially, the young freshman the confidence that he had in their ability to dominate at the line of scrimmage.  Which is saying a lot when one takes into account the opponent.    Prior to the fourth and goal play, Andersen took a timeout, after which many must have expected USU to settle for a field goal.  Keeton, however, sprinted back onto the field with the offense and kept the ball on a read-option play over left tackle, stiff-arming his way into the end zone.  It was a truly remarkable play that displayed the toughness and confidence of the young Keeton.  That score gave Utah State a 14-7 lead going into the second quarter.

Auburn immediately punted on their next possession after another strong showing by the Aggie defense giving Keeton and company another opportunity at the Tiger defense.  In almost identical fashion, the Aggies got the ball and methodically marched their way down the field with a 75 yard, 16 play drive capped off by a Robert Turbin one yard touchdown run.  This drive again required Keeton to come through on fourth down, when he completed a 7 yard pass to his tight end, Taryn Lloyd.  With each drive, Keeton seems to be maturing and the Aggie offensive line seems to be wearing down the bigger Tiger defense.  At this point, the Aggies are enjoying a 21-7 lead, and the Tiger faithful have been overcome with a legitimate concern that they may lose this game.

Just as quick however, fortunes for the Aggies turned as Auburn's Tre Mason returns the following kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown and narrows USU's lead to 21-14.  Just like that all of the hard work put forth by the Aggie offense is gone and the cautious optimism held my many Aggie fans starts to turn to pessimism as they are all too accustomed to losing.  The Aggie offense must go back on the field in an attempt to reinstate their 14 point cushion.

Both teams exchange punts and the Aggies take their 21-14 lead into the locker room.  At this point the Aggie defense has only given up one touchdown, that came on one 56 yard pass play and the Aggie offense had two dominating drives that combined for over 30 plays, 150 yards and 15 minutes off the clock.  On the field, the Aggies were dominating their bigger, faster, heavily-favored opponent yet they only had a seven point lead to show for it.  Aggie fans had to be pleased, while at the same time waiting for the wheels to come off the wagon in the second half.

If Aggie fans were not filled with pessimism and trepidation going into half-time, they certainly were when Auburn came out and mounted their own 11 play 65 yard drive, ending in a Michale Dyer 11 yard touchdown run tying the game at 21 and giving Auburn fans a probable sigh of relief as they were no longer trailing their opponent from the lowly WAC.

Keeton and the Aggies could not match the Tigers and punted after gaining just one first down and 17 yards on their next possession giving the ball back to Auburn and providing them with an opportunity to take the first lead of the game.  The Aggies defense, however, fails to bend and forces Trotter and the Tigers to punt again after failing to move the ball.

Keeton responded by hooking up with wide receiver Matt Austin on a 33 yard pass play and the offense moved the ball down to the Auburn 17 yard line before settling for a 34 yard field goal by Josh Thompson and thus reclaiming the lead at 24-21 with just 4:52 left in the third quarter.  At this point, it looked as though the Aggies would go into the fourth quarter with the lead against the defending national champion.

Auburn, however, moved quickly and drove 72 yards in just 2:55 striking on another big play, a 39 yard touchdown from Trotter to Trevante Stallworth and the Tigers had their first lead of the game 28-24, and looked to have finally seized control of the game they were heavily favored to win.  At this point Aggie faithful had to just be proud that their team hung around with the defending national champions for 3 quarters and were not embarrassed on national television.  While there was no indication from this still brand new season that the Utah State football program had turned the proverbial corner, the following 8 minutes of football may have just been the evidence Aggie fans needed to know that they had physically tough and gifted football team and program that was head and shoulders above where it had stood at any point in the prior 10 years.

In response to losing the lead for the first time all game, Keeton, Turbin and company came out and embarked on a 14 play, 80 yard drive lasting 5:37, resulting in an unbelievable, 7 yard touchdown scamper by Keeton.  Giving the lead back to Utah State at 31-28.  It was evident that no one on the Utah State sideline had conceded the game to Auburn, and it was even more evident that they were confident that they could dominate the Tigers at the line of scrimmage evidenced by the fact that the Aggies were able to pick up three third down conversions on the drive.

The Aggie defense followed suit actually pushing the Tigers backwards on their next series thanks to a sack on third down by Walter McClenton forcing the Tigers to punt.  Utah State got the ball back  at their own 35 yard line with 10:02 remaining in the game and a three point lead.  What did the offense do you ask?  The same thing they had done all game long, drive the ball right down the throat of the Auburn defense.  Keeton and the offense would mount a 14 play, 65 yard drive in which they were faced with 3rd and 5, a 3rd and 3, and a 3rd and 7, on each of which the Aggies were able to pick up first downs.  Then came the biggest play of the game so far, the Aggies faced fourth down and eight from the Auburn 10 yard line.  This was another moment that would signal to Aggie fans that this was not the same team they had been watching for the past decade.  The Aggies were up 3 with 6:24 left on the clock, they easily could have kicked a field goal and gone up by 6 forcing Auburn to score a touchdown to win.  It appeared that is what the Aggies were going to do, as they lined up for the field goal, the coaching staff, hoping to put the game out of reach, called for a fake field goal.  Stanley Morrisson took the snap rolled to his right and found tight end DJ Tialevea for a diving catch and just picking up the first down at the Auburn 2 yard line.  That gutsy call by the Aggie coaching staff resulted, in what appeared to everyone, to be an Aggie victory.  That appeared to be especially secure when Robert Turbin followed that up with a 1 yard touchdown plunge giving the Aggies a 10 point lead with just under 4 minutes to play.

Die hard Aggie fans, however, have learned to never feel secure with their football team.  What happened next was evidence as to why.  Everyone knows how this ended, a long quick touchdown drive by the Tigers followed by the recovery of an onside kick and another quick touchdown by the Tigers allowing them to escape with a 42-38 victory.

The box score didn't support the final outcome of the game however, the Aggies dominated the national champions in nearly every statistical category.  They hadn't nearly beaten the Tigers with fluke plays and capitalizing on Auburn turnovers.  In fact it was Auburn that had to rely on kick off returns for touchdowns, long pass plays and onside kick recoveries.  The Aggies just dominated an SEC squad at the line of scrimmage.  The Aggies had five touchdown drives and a long drive that ended in a field goal.  They ran the ball 53 times for 227 yards.  Keeton was 22-31 for 221 yards and no interceptions.  Most telling was that the Aggies were 10-17 on third down conversions and 3-3 on fourth down.  The Aggies moved the ball at will and offensively they showed they could pick up yards on the ground when they had to.  The Aggies showed that they were not a fluke, but that they had a solid football team.  Most importantly, Gary Andersen had shown that he had changed the culture of the football program, notwithstanding the fact that they ended up losing a game.  This was a program that wasn't going to quit.  This was a program that wasn't going to concede.  This was a program that was going to succeed.  This was the game that changed the attitude of a program.  This is the game that all Aggie fans can point to as the day the program turned the corner.

Another Failed Quest for BYU?

At this year's media day, BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall indicated that the team's goal this year is to finish ranked in the top 10 nationally.  The only reason that such a lofty goal should surprise anyone would be that it appears that Mendenhall has lowered his expectations somewhat this year.  In past years Mendenhall has stated that the team's goals were undefeated seasons, national championships and Heisman Trophy winners. This year it appears that Mendenhall will settle for a top 10 ranking at the end of the season.  Obviously, BYU's goals of undefeated seasons and national championships have never come to fruition (well, not since 1984).  So, what are the chances that they finally reach their goal this year?  NoSocks believes that the chances of a top 10 ranking are highly unlikely, not only due to the lack of talent but also as a result of the schedule.

BYU is in its second year of independence, and while their future schedules appear to be improving, the 2012 schedule consists of two FCS teams, Weber State and Idaho State, and six games against teams that are predicted to finish in the bottom half of FBS teams, Washington State, Hawaii, Oregon State, Idaho, San Jose State, and New Mexico State.  With that schedule it seems highly unlikely that voters will be convinced to place BYU in the top 10.  The caveat to that would be if BYU could win their first two games against Washington State and Weber State and then somehow pull off back to back upset road wins in Salt Lake City and Boise and at least one win in South Bend or in Atlanta against Georgia Tech.  However, almost any team in the country could spell out such a scenario.  The question then becomes, is that a realistic possibility?  In short, absolutely not.

BYU simply does not have the talent that they once had.  They have failed to have a single player taken in the NFL draft in past two years, and have few players on this year's roster with NFL potential.  The question could be raised as to whether there truly is a lack of talent or a lack of ability by the coaching staff to develop that talent.  That, however, is another question for another day.  The only question to consider today is whether BYU has sufficient talent to accomplish their goal of a top 10 ranking.  Offensively, the Cougars struggled last season.  Jake Heaps, who has since left team via transfer to Kansas, started the first five games of the season wherein BYU struggled mightily to put points on the board.  The Cougars averaged just over 18 points a game in those five games against teams with an average record of 6-6.  During the fifth game of the season against Utah State, BYU inserted Riley Nelson into the starting quarterback position and only lost one game for the remainder of the season.  Don't let this fool you however as Nelson led the teams to victory over the likes of Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State, San Jose State and a reeling Hawaii team, capping it off with a bowl victory against a mediocre Tulsa squad.

Even more telling is Nelson's stats over that period.  While he did complete 57 percent of his passes, he only threw for 1717 yards for an average of 8.5 per completion.  While there is little doubt that the offense played better with Nelson under center, they have yet to prove that they are capable of beating quality opponents with Nelson leading the charge.  The only quality opponent that Nelson played was TCU where the Cougars fell 38-28 to the Horned Frogs.  In that game, Nelson went 15-29 for 215 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.  It appears that we will have the answers to our questions about Nelson within the first four games of the season.

BYU lost two running threats from last year's squad, a squad that failed to produce a 100 yard rusher in any game last season.  It appears that this year the bulk of the carries will go to Josh Quezada and Michael Alisa.  Quezada rushed for just 298 yards last year on 86 carries while Alisa rushed for 455 yards on 85 carries.  The Cougars running game will also suffer from the loss of two starting offensive lineman in tackle, Matt Reynolds and Center Terance Brown.  The Cougars lack both a break-away runner and a power back.  It appears that the running game will struggle to produce against fast defensive units like they will see in Utah and Boise this season.

While BYU lacks talent in the quarterback and running back position, they do have an abundance of talent at wide receiver.  Sophomore, Ross Apo and Junior Cody Hoffman are both big physical receivers that give Nelson a big target to which he can throw.  Last season Hoffman seemed to develop as Nelson's favorite target.  This may help to compensate for Nelson's lack of accuracy as a passer.  While the talent at wide receiver is above-average, overall BYU does not have the offensive talent necessary to warrant a top 10 ranking at the end of the season.  Neither Nelson nor any one of BYU's running backs would find a starting spot on any of the teams currently ranked in the top 10.

Perhaps then it is BYU's defense that gives Mendenhall reason to believe his team has the capability to finish with such a lofty ranking.  Last season BYU finished with impressive defense rankings, as they were ranked 22 nationally in points against.  They do have at least one player on the defensive side of the ball with NFL potential in linebacker Kyle Van Noy.  Defensively, however, it was tough to truly gauge how tough BYU actually was, as they played some teams with fairly anemic offenses in Ole Miss, Texas, Oregon State, New Mexico State, Idaho and Idaho State.  Therefore, last year's statistics may be somewhat misleading.  BYU will also lose some key components to last year's defense in Jordan Pendleton, Jameson Frazier and Corby Eason.  This defense, like the rest of the team, will really be tested on their first road trips to Salt Lake City and Boise.

At the end of the day, the 2012 BYU Cougars will look very similar to the team that finished last season.  While that team did go 10-3, they were 0-1 against ranked opponents, and only 2-3 against FBS teams with winning records, while going 7-0 against FBS teams with losing records.  The facts are that last year's team won games against bad teams.  They have six built in wins on their schedule this year against Weber State, Hawaii, Oregon State, Idaho, San Jose State and New Mexico State.  They also have two home games that they should win in Washington State and Utah State.  They also have four extremely difficult road games against Utah, Boise State, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.  In order for BYU to finish in the top 10, as hoped, they would probably have to win 3 of those 4 road games.  That seems highly unlikely if not completely improbable given the lack of proven talent on BYU's roster.  They have yet to prove they can compete against quality competition.  Due to the difficult road schedule and the lack of talent across the board, I think it is a safe bet that once again BYU will fall short of their stated goal.