Another Failed Quest for BYU?

At this year's media day, BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall indicated that the team's goal this year is to finish ranked in the top 10 nationally.  The only reason that such a lofty goal should surprise anyone would be that it appears that Mendenhall has lowered his expectations somewhat this year.  In past years Mendenhall has stated that the team's goals were undefeated seasons, national championships and Heisman Trophy winners. This year it appears that Mendenhall will settle for a top 10 ranking at the end of the season.  Obviously, BYU's goals of undefeated seasons and national championships have never come to fruition (well, not since 1984).  So, what are the chances that they finally reach their goal this year?  NoSocks believes that the chances of a top 10 ranking are highly unlikely, not only due to the lack of talent but also as a result of the schedule.

BYU is in its second year of independence, and while their future schedules appear to be improving, the 2012 schedule consists of two FCS teams, Weber State and Idaho State, and six games against teams that are predicted to finish in the bottom half of FBS teams, Washington State, Hawaii, Oregon State, Idaho, San Jose State, and New Mexico State.  With that schedule it seems highly unlikely that voters will be convinced to place BYU in the top 10.  The caveat to that would be if BYU could win their first two games against Washington State and Weber State and then somehow pull off back to back upset road wins in Salt Lake City and Boise and at least one win in South Bend or in Atlanta against Georgia Tech.  However, almost any team in the country could spell out such a scenario.  The question then becomes, is that a realistic possibility?  In short, absolutely not.

BYU simply does not have the talent that they once had.  They have failed to have a single player taken in the NFL draft in past two years, and have few players on this year's roster with NFL potential.  The question could be raised as to whether there truly is a lack of talent or a lack of ability by the coaching staff to develop that talent.  That, however, is another question for another day.  The only question to consider today is whether BYU has sufficient talent to accomplish their goal of a top 10 ranking.  Offensively, the Cougars struggled last season.  Jake Heaps, who has since left team via transfer to Kansas, started the first five games of the season wherein BYU struggled mightily to put points on the board.  The Cougars averaged just over 18 points a game in those five games against teams with an average record of 6-6.  During the fifth game of the season against Utah State, BYU inserted Riley Nelson into the starting quarterback position and only lost one game for the remainder of the season.  Don't let this fool you however as Nelson led the teams to victory over the likes of Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State, San Jose State and a reeling Hawaii team, capping it off with a bowl victory against a mediocre Tulsa squad.

Even more telling is Nelson's stats over that period.  While he did complete 57 percent of his passes, he only threw for 1717 yards for an average of 8.5 per completion.  While there is little doubt that the offense played better with Nelson under center, they have yet to prove that they are capable of beating quality opponents with Nelson leading the charge.  The only quality opponent that Nelson played was TCU where the Cougars fell 38-28 to the Horned Frogs.  In that game, Nelson went 15-29 for 215 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.  It appears that we will have the answers to our questions about Nelson within the first four games of the season.

BYU lost two running threats from last year's squad, a squad that failed to produce a 100 yard rusher in any game last season.  It appears that this year the bulk of the carries will go to Josh Quezada and Michael Alisa.  Quezada rushed for just 298 yards last year on 86 carries while Alisa rushed for 455 yards on 85 carries.  The Cougars running game will also suffer from the loss of two starting offensive lineman in tackle, Matt Reynolds and Center Terance Brown.  The Cougars lack both a break-away runner and a power back.  It appears that the running game will struggle to produce against fast defensive units like they will see in Utah and Boise this season.

While BYU lacks talent in the quarterback and running back position, they do have an abundance of talent at wide receiver.  Sophomore, Ross Apo and Junior Cody Hoffman are both big physical receivers that give Nelson a big target to which he can throw.  Last season Hoffman seemed to develop as Nelson's favorite target.  This may help to compensate for Nelson's lack of accuracy as a passer.  While the talent at wide receiver is above-average, overall BYU does not have the offensive talent necessary to warrant a top 10 ranking at the end of the season.  Neither Nelson nor any one of BYU's running backs would find a starting spot on any of the teams currently ranked in the top 10.

Perhaps then it is BYU's defense that gives Mendenhall reason to believe his team has the capability to finish with such a lofty ranking.  Last season BYU finished with impressive defense rankings, as they were ranked 22 nationally in points against.  They do have at least one player on the defensive side of the ball with NFL potential in linebacker Kyle Van Noy.  Defensively, however, it was tough to truly gauge how tough BYU actually was, as they played some teams with fairly anemic offenses in Ole Miss, Texas, Oregon State, New Mexico State, Idaho and Idaho State.  Therefore, last year's statistics may be somewhat misleading.  BYU will also lose some key components to last year's defense in Jordan Pendleton, Jameson Frazier and Corby Eason.  This defense, like the rest of the team, will really be tested on their first road trips to Salt Lake City and Boise.

At the end of the day, the 2012 BYU Cougars will look very similar to the team that finished last season.  While that team did go 10-3, they were 0-1 against ranked opponents, and only 2-3 against FBS teams with winning records, while going 7-0 against FBS teams with losing records.  The facts are that last year's team won games against bad teams.  They have six built in wins on their schedule this year against Weber State, Hawaii, Oregon State, Idaho, San Jose State and New Mexico State.  They also have two home games that they should win in Washington State and Utah State.  They also have four extremely difficult road games against Utah, Boise State, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.  In order for BYU to finish in the top 10, as hoped, they would probably have to win 3 of those 4 road games.  That seems highly unlikely if not completely improbable given the lack of proven talent on BYU's roster.  They have yet to prove they can compete against quality competition.  Due to the difficult road schedule and the lack of talent across the board, I think it is a safe bet that once again BYU will fall short of their stated goal.