The Big East's Big Regret - San Diego State

In December 2011, it was announced that San Diego State was joining the Big East Conference.  That Big East Conference, however, was not the same conference that we had all finally gotten to know.  You know, that Big East Conference that we all knew didn’t deserve to be an automatic qualifier for a BCS game.  That same conference that always provided America with one BCS game that they didn’t care to watch.  Yes, that Big East.  That was the conference that invited The San Diego State University to join its ranks.  I suppose inviting a team from San Diego to join a conference called the “Big East,” makes about as much sense as allowing a conference comprised with surprisingly mediocre football teams to enjoy a seat at the BCS table while other conferences with equally mediocre teams were excluded.  Obviously, San Diego State jumped at the opportunity to join, along with their new found friends, Boise State.  However, what may be surprising is that San Diego State was the party that appeared to enter their new union with an abundance of caution, while it should have been the Big East that had warning sirens going off in its conference headquarters.  It would be the equivalent of me forcing Katy Perry to sign a prenuptial agreement before I would ever agree to marry her.    

It is interesting to note that San Diego State’s agreement with the Big East contained several methods in which SDSU could escape the Big East with little or no penalty.   The Agreement require San Diego State to pay a $5 million entrance fee, however that amount could be decreased to $1 million if the Big East were to experience a 25 percent decrease in total revenue from its prior fiscal year.  Also, if the Big East’s new television contract fails to allocate at least 70 percent of the proceeds to football broadcasts, SDSU can escape the Big East with a reduced buy out of $2.5 million.  San Diego State’s contract with the Big East could also be voided if Boise State were to change its mind about joining the conference in July 2013 and another team west of the Rocky Mountains is not added in Boise’s place. 

The contract negotiated by the two parties seems to indicate that the Big East was fairly desperate to, not only add teams, but to add western based teams, specifically Boise State.  The terms also seem to indicate some confidence on the part of the Big East in regards to the value of its television contract.  It was the general consensus that the estimated television contract, prior to the departure of schools like Syracuse and Pittsburg, was somewhere in the ballpark of $11 million per school, however that included both basketball and football.  The contract with San Diego State seems to imply that the Big East currently believes that television contract would put the floor for contract negotiations at $6.4 million per school.  It appears that the Big East must have at least some good understanding as to what the minimum television contract will be with their new additions.

Beginning September 2012, the Big East can commence with negotiating a new television  contract.  Some have speculated that a new TV deal for the Big East could fetch at least $6.4 million per year for football-only members.  San Diego State Athletic Director, Jim Sterk, is quoted as saying that he thinks it "could be a lot better than that."  All of the emphasis there should be on the word 'could'.  After all, San Diego State could win the national championship.  The likelihood of either of those things happening, however, may be fairly remote.

Apparently NBC and Fox made presentations to the league earlier this year.  However, ESPN does own first negotiating rights with the conference starting in September.  Sterk has indicated that it is the intention of the Big East to get the television contracts done and “then decide by 2015, when Navy comes in, to have that other school there."   Mike Sheehey, the senior vice president for sports content at NBC Sports Group explained that “you have to make your business decisions based on what your conference is now and put in clauses that allow it to address any changes.”  He indicated that “there is value now, and that’s what we’re looking at. And we don’t know if it’s going to continue to change or if it’s not. But either way, we feel there’s value.”  NBC is stating that, according to them, there is ‘value’ in the Big East, I suppose the question then becomes, just how much value?  The Big East will add the aforementioned San Diego State University, along with Boise State, Houston, SMU, Central Florida, Memphis and Temple for the 2013 season, and has Navy on board for the 2015 season.

While San Diego State must be applauded for their caution in entering into a contract with the Big East, one has to wonder if the Big East showed comparable caution and restraint in their plans of moving forward.  The addition of San Diego State is evidence that perhaps the Big East failed in the prudence department.   

In 2013, the Big East will consist of 12 football playing schools, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, Temple, South Florida, Boise State, Houston, Central Florida, Memphis, Southern Methodist, and San Diego State.  Of that group, Rutgers resides in the nation’s largest television market, Temple in the fourth largest market (Philadelphia), SMU is in the Dallas television market with is ranked fifth by Nielson, and Houston is also in the top ten television markets.  With its two western additions, the Big East added the 28^th largest television market in San Diego with a market size of approximately 1 million, and the 112^th largest market in Boise, Idaho, a market size of approximately 261,000.  While adding Boise definitely secures control over that 112^th ranked market, adding San Diego State could only allow the Big East, and its eventual television partner, to secure a portion of the 28^th ranked market, which lies in firm Pac 12 territory.  The New York Times conducted some research in regards to fan base breakdown in certain geographical regions.  While the research was admittedly unscientific, it does seem to indicate that San Diego State shares its market with the PAC 12, as there appears to be an equal ratio of San Diego State fans and fans of PAC 12 schools such as USC, UCLA, Stanford, California and Arizona (http://www.commoncensus.org/sports_hotspot.phpradioDiameter=100&map.x=91&map.y=231&sport=5)

That same New York Times study ranked San Diego State as having an estimated national fan base of 242,126, ranking them 77^th out all FBS schools, that is not even a quarter of the entire San Diego market.  As a result, the Big East has to question just how much of the San Diego market will it receive with San Diego State’s addition.  While the Big East’s motive may simply be to gain some presence, no matter how minor, in Southern California it will certainly struggle to gain viewers in that region for games involving teams from New Jersey, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Tennessee and Florida. 

In addition, San Diego State’s entire athletic department’s 2011 revenue was only $45,201,703.  While that revenue is greater than half of that of the other members of the 2013 Big East, it still falls in the bottom half of the rankings for FBS schools.    In 2009, San Diego State averaged only 24,464 fans at their home games.  That number has increased to just below 40,000 in 2011, however that number seems to be a bit skewed by their own attendance counting practices and the fact that they sell out a 71,000 seat stadium once a year for a popular fireworks show that is held after one game each season.  These numbers all seem to indicate that San Diego State does not carry much national appeal and even fails to receive much attention within its own market. 

Perhaps the most convincing argument for the exclusion of San Diego State would be the fact that the football program has been nothing short of miserable for entirety of this century.  Since 2000, San Diego State has won only 38 percent of its games, which ranks them 97^th among all FBS schools.  Of the 2013 Big East, only Temple can claim a worse record over that same time period.  In contrast, Boise State ranks tops in winning percentage since 2000.  On average, the 2013 Big East has only won 51 percent of its games since 2000.  As a result, the networks have to realize that they are looking to make a deal with a conference that is the very epitome of mediocre. 

Based on these facts, one has to ask two simple questions in regards to the status of the Big East and its pending television contract negotiations; first, does San Diego State increase the Big East’s appeal and prestige?  And second, does San Diego State add value?  Based on the facts outlined above, it is obvious that San Diego State adds little to nothing in the way of national appeal and perhaps decreases any on-field prestige that the conference may have gained over the years.  While San Diego State may be located in one of the nation’s top 30 television markets, there are significant questions in regards to just how many people in that market actually care about San Diego State football.  Further, a team that has only managed to win just over one-third of its games this century cannot possibly add any prestige to the conference nor will they demand increased viewership.  Unlike its counterpart Boise State, who comes from a much smaller market, Boise State at a minimum can increase the overall prestige of the conference by way of its proven track record of success on the field. 

The second question as to whether San Diego State adds value is yet to be determined.  It is clear that the Big East has lost significant value as a result of the departure of Syracuse and Pittsburg, the questions will be does the addition of San Diego State salvage any of that lost value.  We may not know the answer to that question because the Big East will never take the opportunity to negotiate a contract without the inclusion of San Diego State, so we may never know whether they add to the bottom line value of the television contract.  Perhaps the only argument for their inclusion would be that they came as a package deal with Boise State and the Big East wanted Boise State badly enough they will include San Diego State. 

While the Big East may prove all of its critics wrong, one has to wonder if their standing in the college football landscape would be any worse had they entered the expansion game with greater caution.  If rumors are true, the Big East did attempt to add additional western teams, namely BYU and Air Force.  It is believed that those two schools turned the Big East down in 2011.  Perhaps the Big East could have waited on any western expansion until they had secured more than just Boise State and San Diego State.  A greater presence in the West certainly would have looked more appealing to television suitors than one small market team in Idaho and large market team with a small fan base in Southern California.  Now, the Big East is stuck with 12 mediocre teams scattered all over the country and a television contract that is set to expire at the end of this year. 

The comments from Mike Sheehy of NBC seem to indicate that the networks are hoping for change and that any contracts would be tailored with clauses increasing the contract if additional changes are made.  Those comments seem to indicate, that while there is some value, the networks are likely encouraging and hoping for additional changes in the conference’s make up.  Such statements seem to indicate that San Diego State was not addition that the networks were hoping for.  Leading one to assume that they are a small piece in what the Big East hopes is a bigger puzzle.  While San Diego State adds little value standing alone, perhaps their presence is key to attracting better alternatives out West that will eventually lead to the television contract that the Big East is hoping for.